Country Risk Update April 2014

April 2014

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Global Economic Outlook: Headwinds Continue to Threaten Recovery

We are still optimistic that real global GDP growth in 2014 (2.6%) will significantly outperform that of 2013 (2.0%) as the economy finally starts to gain traction from the 2008-09 recession. However, performance is diverging, as highlighted by the March release of the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators, which signalled strengthening growth momentum in advanced economies (e.g. the US, the euro area, Japan and the UK) but a continuing cyclical slowdown in major emerging markets if not yet in China.

However, headwinds remain. In particular, Chinese output and property markets are set to slow, driven by overcapacity and the concerns over corporate defaults. In addition, in the US early data for 2014 initially pointed towards growth of closer to 2.5% (below our forecast of 2.9%), showing the high, tangible impact of unseasonably cold weather. Inflation is also dangerously low across Europe; deflation would impact the slow recovery. Finally, the political risk premium spinning out of the Ukraine / Russia situation also threatens to undermine the wider regional business environment.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Botswana: Strong economic growth is supported by diamond exports.
Tunisia: Policy instability and security volatility mar the overall outlook.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt: The short-term political outlook stabilises as the presidential election approaches.
Jordan: Weak economic growth and political tensions undermine the risk outlook.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Portugal: The short-term economic outlook has improved but remains exposed to turbulence.
Spain:  Social unease intensifies as poverty levels continue to rise across the country.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Georgia: The EU accelerates plans to strengthen ties with Georgia following events in Ukraine.
Slovakia: The political environment faces a shake up following the presidential elections.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

Malaysia: Surging electronics and natural gas exports support a positive outlook.
Taiwan: A public crisis is triggered by mounting opposition to freer trade with China.

 

AMERICAS

Canada: Consumer spending supports a positive short-term economic outlook.
USA: Economic expansion remains on track and the labour market continues to recover. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

 

Free Country RiskLine Reports

Select the buttons below to link to details on trading terms, payment delays, exchange rates and economic indicators, plus political, economic and commercial risk analysis.

Germany

The incidence of business failure is still falling. Report

Mexico

A weakening manufacturing sector undermines economic activity. Report

Poland

Growth is set to accelerate and outperform most of the country’s regional peers. Report

 


veröffentlicht am: 01. April 2014