Country Risk Update April 2016

April 2016

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

The headwinds facing the global economy, although still considerable, abated slightly in March, which should reduce market volatility (although we expect bouts to occur periodically into 2017). In particular, modified expectations of the number of interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve in 2016 have seen upward pressure on the US dollar ease. In addition, the commodity slump appears to have bottomed out, while central banks, particularly in Europe and Japan, continue with supportive monetary policies. Furthermore, real wages are rising in most advanced countries, improving purchasing power. However, this is not having a uniform impact on consumption, with households paying down debt and/or increasing savings.

Meanwhile, the growth picture remains mixed. In 2016, real GDP growth in the US will be lower than was forecast in January, but will still be above 2.0%. In Europe, growth will remain anaemic at 1.7%, while China’s will slow from 6.9% in 2015 to 6.0% in 2016. The picture from the other emerging markets is diverse, with Brazil and Russia both expected to contract in 2016, while India will see growth consolidate.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Kenya: The IMF approves a new precautionary assistance package.
Mauritius: Economic growth picks up despite soft construction and business investment.

MIDDLE EAST

Jordan: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Jordan’s country risk rating due to rising macroeconomic, political and security concerns.
Syria: A collapse in exports undermines one of the pillars of economic growth

WESTERN EUROPE

France: New data paint a largely bleak picture of France’s short-term economic outlook.
Ireland: The economic outlook improves significantly after several years of stagnation

EASTERN EUROPE

Hungary: Average wages rise rapidly with significant consequences for the economy.
Romania: The credit environment improves after a long period of stagnation.

ASIA PACIFIC

Bangladesh: Robust growth in garments demand aids momentum, but the outlook is weakening.
New Zealand: Growth momentum is likely to fade through the first half of the year.

AMERICAS

Bolivia: A contingency plan is activated to offset the impact of the commodity price downturn.
Ecuador: Economic activity declines again as does the state of business confidence.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

France

New data paint a largely bleak picture of France’s short-term economic outlook. Report

Saudi Arabia

Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its country risk rating for Saudi Arabia amid weak employment figures. Report

Uruguay

Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Uruguay’s country risk rating as inflation reaches double digits. Report

veröffentlicht am: 20. April 2016