Country Risk Update August 2014

August 2014

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Global Economic Outlook: US and China post improved Q2 growth

The global economic growth outlook for 2014 improved with the release of real GDP data for the US, which showed an annualised growth of 4% in Q2, significantly above expectations. In addition, China also posted an improved performance in Q2, with growth of 7.2% year on year, up from 7.1% y/y in Q1 and reversing three consecutive quarters of slowing growth. We are forecasting stronger global growth in H2 2014 as the recovery finally becomes embedded.

Nevertheless headwinds remain, with geopolitical crises around the Gaza strip, Ukraine and Iraq and Syria continuing to undermine market confidence, especially in the vital energy sector. Other headwinds include potential asset bubbles, including house prices in London and the Netherlands, and junk bonds. Tightening liquidity as the US Federal Reserve ends it quantitative easing programme in October 2014 and uncertainty around the timing of the inevitable rise in interest rates will impact negatively on the markets. Concerns about imbalances in China and the debt hangover in Europe also remain.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Tunisia: Policy instability and security volatility mar the short-term outlook.
Uganda: An IMF report underlines the healthy economic growth outlook.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt: Concerns remain about political stability and economic sustainability.
Qatar: The external position remains strong but will come under growing pressure.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Turkey: Economic and security concerns undermine the risk outlook.
United Kingdom:  The short-term economic outlook continues to improve.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Serbia: The process of recovery from the recent floods begins in earnest.
Slovakia: The risk of expropriation increases as the government makes moves on the energy sector.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

Korea (South): External economic growth remains excellent but policymakers are still anxious.
Singapore: Overall growth declines as domestic industries go through a rebalancing phase.

 

AMERICAS

Argentina: The country defaults on sovereign debt for the second time in 13 years.
Venezuela: Political risk remains elevated as the trial of a key opposition figure commences. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

Free Country RiskLine Reports

Select the buttons below to link to details on trading terms, payment delays, exchange rates and economic indicators, plus political, economic and commercial risk analysis.

Canada

Recovering exports and resilient household spending support marginal economic growth. Report

Spain

Conditions worsen as the government moves to limit parliamentary powers. Report

Switzerland

Insolvency risk is falling and looks set to improve even further during the remainder of 2014. Report

 

 

 

 


veröffentlicht am: 12. August 2014