|Country Insight Update|
Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Insight Update.
Into H2 2017, we continue to forecast stronger world growth for the year at 2.8%, up from 2.3% in 2016 and the strongest performance since 2011. However, over the past month we have noticed a change to trends in the major economies, with the US data indicating a weakening of growth as the year progresses, while the prospects for the eurozone, Japan and China are improving. We now forecast US growth to come in at 2.0% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016, while the eurozone will edge up from 1.7% to 1.8%, and Japan from 1.0% to 1.3%; but China will slow from 6.7% to 6.3%.
The weaker outlook for the US has raised market concerns about the timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate change. In June US interest rates were raised for a second time in 2017, with the Fed signalling one further hike this year. In addition, it indicated that it is liable to start unwinding its bloated balance sheet by year-end. While we are maintaining our forecast in line with the Fed, further delays in timing – out to December, as we expect – could hold off a return of volatility in global capital and currency markets, in turn maintaining business confidence until late Q4 at least.
This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.
|Algeria: A new policy aims to cut the abuse of import tariffs.|
South Africa: The benchmark interest rate is cut to stimulate growth.
|Iran: US pressure on Iran continues to ratchet upn.|
Oman: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Oman’s country risk rating amid weak economic fundamentals and rising political risk.
|Germany: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades Germany’s country risk rating amid multiple positive developments.|
United Kingdom: Political uncertainty remains high amid anaemic growth.
|Poland: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Poland’s country risk rating due to ongoing political problems.|
Russian Federation: The US approves legislation to extend sanctions on Russia.
|India: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for India as the central bank cuts interest rates.|
Indonesia: The government steps up efforts to contain extremist groups.
|Argentina: Economic activity accelerates amid impressive growth in industrial production.|
Bolivia: A boundary committee with Chile is reactivated to help restore co-operation.
D&B Country Insight Services
D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.
These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.
Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.
To find out more information click here.
NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots
Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
|The economy is likely to have expanded further in Q2 but downside risks remain. Report|
|Japan signs a major free-trade agreement with the EU. Report|
|The central bank tightens monetary policy as robust inflation persists. Report|
veröffentlicht am: 11. August 2017