Country Risk Update December 2014

December 2014

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Aggressive Policy to Boost Growth?

Global economic growth continues to make slow progress, but diverging growth paths and the consequent different policy reactions have become more apparent in Q4 2014. The US, the UK and a number of smaller economies such as Ireland, Malaysia, New Zealand and Vietnam are seeing stronger growth. However, many countries are facing a period of slower growth, with the result that November witnessed a number of aggressive policy adjustments in attempt to boost growth. In China, a benchmark one-year rate was cut by 0.4 percentage points (pp) to 5.6%, the first cut in two years, while in Japan the second stage of the sales tax hike due in Q1 2015 was delayed, with the Bank of Japan having expanded its stimulus programme the previous month. In Europe the ECB signalled that it was prepared to undertake further stimulus.

Meanwhile, downside risks continue to outweigh the positive benefits expected from the sharp drop in oil prices. In particular, monetary policy is not a silver bullet, while market uncertainty over the timing and size of the inevitable US interest rate rises, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the reduction in global liquidity, acts as a headwind, as does the prospect of deflation in Europe.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

 

AFRICA

Kenya: Falling tourism and export revenues hit foreign currency reserves.
Morocco: Significantly lower oil prices have a positive bearing on the economic outlook.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Syria: Little prospect of an improvement in stability in the short term.
Yemen: The legitimacy of a new cabinet is called into question.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

France: Business failures increase amid a difficult business environment.
Greece:  Uncertainty clouds the political outlook as a snap presidential election is called.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Romania: Economic growth bounces back from the mediocre Q2 performance.
Serbia: The IMF resumes lending arrangement to help downsize the overburdened state.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

Bangladesh: Strong growth is seen in a number of key sectors.
Pakistan: A policy rate cut signals a reduced threat to inflation and helps lower business costs.

 

AMERICAS

Brazil: The central bank is expected to continue monetary tightening.
Mexico: Civil unrest causes presidential approval ratings to hit twenty-year low. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

The Country RiskLine reports that used to form part of this monthly update have been replaced with a new monitoring report product – D&B Country Insight Snapshots.

Hungary

Pressure mounts on coalition after a trade union threatens a roadblock. Report

Ireland

Water charge triggers period of political turbulence. Report

Venezuela

Falling oil prices push the fiscal deficit to unsustainable levels. Report

 


veröffentlicht am: 22. Dezember 2014