Country Risk Update December 2015

Country Risk Update

December 2015

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

We expect the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on 16 December will see US interest rates rise by 25bp; a prelude to further slow and steady increases in 2016. As the rise has been well signalled, beyond a short burst of volatility, capital markets are unlikely to experience a repeat of 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ on this occasion. However, the move is due to pressure emerging market currencies, especially those with high US dollar debt exposure. In addition, corporates in markets which have binged on cheap liquidity since 2008 are set face a challenging period as interest rate rise and currencies weaken.

Looking ahead, we expect global real GDP growth to edge upward to 2.7% in 2016 and rebound to 3.2% in 2017, after falling to an estimated 2.4% in 2015. Although we are currently predicting pick-up in growth across all regions, the main driver will be the North American region.  We are currently forecasting real GDP growth in the US will be 2.7% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017, following an estimate for 2015 of 2.5%.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Tunisia: A third terrorist attack in eight months hits the country.

Zimbabwe: The growth outlook is poor given expectations of sub-standard rainfall.

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Egypt’s country risk rating and outlook in the wake of the downing of a Russian airliner.
Saudi Arabia: Government continues to liquidate assets and is to tap the international bond markets.

WESTERNEUROPE

Spain: Buoyant private consumption and investment boost economic growth.
Switzerland: Pressure builds on the franc, which is worrying for the country’s export sector.

ASIA PACIFIC

India: Transport connectivity remains the key to higher economic growth.
South Korea: The economy’s transition to a lower growth trend leaves it more vulnerable to negative shocks.

EASTERN EUROPE

Serbia: The growth outlook in 2016-17 improves, boosted by investment and exports.
Slovenia: Exports and private consumption to drive growth during the forecast period.

AMERICAS

Canada: Central bank and federal budget watchdog anticipate slower growth and larger deficits.
United States of America: High levels of inventories could drag on growth in Q4. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

The Country RiskLine reports that used to form part of this monthly update have been replaced with a new monitoring report product – D&B Country Insight Snapshots.

Egypt

Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Egypt’s country risk rating and outlook in the wake of the downing of a Russian airliner. Report

Turkey

Political and security risks remain elevated after the AKP’s convincing election victory. Report

Canada

Central bank and federal budget watchdog anticipate slower growth and larger deficits. Report

veröffentlicht am: 21. Dezember 2015