Country Risk Update December 2016

December 2016

We estimate that global growth measured in real GDP terms slowed for a second consecutive year in 2016, to 2.2%, from 2.4% in 2015. The sole region to perform better in 2016 was Eastern Europe and Central Asia (going from a contraction of 0.8% to growth of 0.8%). North America disappointed, with real GDP growth falling from 2.3% to just 1.6%.

Looking ahead, we forecast that global real GDP growth will rebound in 2017, to 2.7% – the best level since 2011. However, two risks in particular will cloud the horizon in early 2017. The first risk involves uncertainties over the nature of US President-elect Donald J. Trump’s policies and how they impact on US growth and, more importantly, world trade: we are concerned that he will adopt a nationalist, protectionist agenda which could hit global confidence.

The second risk centres on the negotiations for the UK to leave the EU, which are due to formally open by end-Q1 2017; worryingly, the indications are that the UK will adopt a strategy of a ‘hard’ exit that restricts migration, which is liable to prolong radical uncertainty for business into the medium term. US financial markets have responded positively so far, but uncertainty remains.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Cote d’Ivoire: An agreement is secured to construct a major LNG import hub.
South Africa: President Zuma holds off a no-confidence vote but still faces challenges.

MIDDLE EAST

Iran: Concerns about US President-elect Trump’s policies cloud the risk outlook.
Oman: Despite government austerity measures, the country’s fiscal deficit deepens significantly.

WESTERN EUROPE

Denmark: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Denmark as the government stabilises.
Germany: Chancellor Angela Merkel finally announces that she is seeking a fourth term in office.

EASTERN EUROPE

Croatia: Proxy indicators suggest that the economy is slowing but market opportunities are still growing.
Russian Federation: Russia remains in recession but the pace of contraction continues to moderate.

ASIA PACIFIC

China: Transfer risks rise for overseas counter-parties expecting payments from China.
Indonesia: Recent protests in Jakarta expose Indonesia’s hidden but extant ethnic and religious tensions.

AMERICAS

Argentina: Economic activity declines in the third quarter as the recession continues.
Bolivia: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for Bolivia as water scarcity heightens social tensions.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Argentina

Economic activity declines in the third quarter as the recession continues. Report

China

Transfer risks rise for overseas counter-parties expecting payments from China. Report

Denmark

Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Denmark as the government stabilises. Report

veröffentlicht am: 01. Dezember 2016