Country Risk Update Dezember 2017

Dezember 2017

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Insight Update.

Although global growth for 2017 is set to come in at 3.0%, the highest level since 2011, and will improve further to 3.1% in 2018, this remains well below the levels experienced before the global financial crisis. As a result, the normalisation of central bank policies continues to dominate the market outlook. We expect a further 0.25 basis point rise in US interest rates in December, with at least a further three rate hikes in 2018. Meanwhile, in November the ECB announced a halving of its asset purchases from EUR60bn per month to EUR30bn, which will run until at least September 2018. We do not expect an ECB interest rate to rise until well after the ending of quantitative easing, i.e. around Q3 2019.

In 2018, we expect growth in most major economies to strengthen. US growth is forecast to climb to 2.3% (from an expected 2.0% in 2017), while growth in Euroland will increase to 2.2% (from 2.1%). Similarly, a positive trajectory will be experienced in Russia (1.8% in 2017 to 1.9% in 2018), Brazil (0.7% to 2.0%) and India (6.6% to 7.6%). In contrast, growth will slow in the UK (1.6% to 1.3%), Japan (1.5% to 1.3%) and China (6.9% to 6.4%).

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Kenya: Uhuru Kenyatta is sworn in as president as further legal challenges are dismissed.
Tunisia: The IMF’s push for more reforms could threaten stability.

MIDDLE EAST

Lebanon: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades Lebanon’s country risk rating as the prime minister revokes his resignation.
Qatar: Qatar continues to defy its neighbours by using political liberalisation measures.

WESTERN EUROPE

France:  Growth forecasts for 2017-19 are upgraded.
Netherlands: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades the Netherlands‘ country risk rating due to a strong economic performance.

EASTERN EUROPE

Hungary : A surge in investment is driving economic growth.
Serbia: The commercial environment continues to improve.

ASIA PACIFIC

New Zealand: The Reserve Bank is to ease lending restrictions for house-buying.
Vietnam: The government announces measures to boost tourism.

AMERICAS

Brazil: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Brazil as growth accelerates.
Honduras: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for Honduras as the country sinks into deep political crisis.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Peru

New evidence in the Odebrecht scandal puts more strain on political stability. Report

Sweden

Low inflation sends the krona tumbling. Report

Yemen

The killing of ex-President Saleh is unlikely to bring peace any closer. Report

veröffentlicht am: 10. Dezember 2017