Country Risk Update February 2014

February 2014

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Global Economic Outlook: Growth is gaining traction

We estimate that global growth slowed for the third year in a row in 2013, falling to 2.0%, down from 2.3% in 2012 and 4.0% in 2010. We are forecasting stronger growth of 2.7% in 2014, rising to 2.9% in 2015, albeit still well below the levels achieved in the five years prior to the 2008-09 recession. We expect all regions to perform better in 2014 than in 2013, apart from Asia Pacific where growth will be 4.1% in both years. The star performer will be North America: growth will increase from 1.9% to 2.9%.

However, the room for policy error remains high. The US Federal Reserve has the difficult task of ensuring an orderly scaling down of its massive quantitative easing programme. In addition, governments in the advanced economies have to reduce public debt levels while ensuring growth is maintained. Many emerging market governments have yet to implement structural reform packages to ensure long-term growth. Foreign investors and policymakers in the emerging markets have yet to assess the risks from short-term interest rate rises in the US (several quarters distant but ever-encroaching), and what that will mean to capital flows, growth and asset prices in emerging markets.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest country risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Kenya: Drought could create severe food shortages and harm the economy.
Morocco: Plans to phase out diesel subsidies point to a modestly improved outlook.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Jordan: The country attempts to diversify its energy profile but progress is slow.
United Arab Emirates: The president’s illness highlights the issue of political succession.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Austria: Some weaknesses undermine a broadly positive near-term economic outlook.
Italy: Fiscal austerity and rising unemployment are still curbing domestic demand.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Croatia: The government’s ability to govern effectively is increasingly uncertain.
Hungary: The government is likely to win the upcoming election.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

Sri Lanka: Strong exports and steadily rising remittances drive robust economic growth.
Vietnam: The economic recovery loses momentum as exports slow significantly.

 

AMERICAS

Brazil: D&B downgrades Brazil’s country risk rating due to a deteriorating economic profile.
United States: The outlook remains promising for 2014 and beyond.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

 

Free Country RiskLine Reports

Select the buttons below to link to details on trading terms, payment delays, exchange rates and economic indicators, plus political, economic and commercial risk analysis.

Belgium

D&B upgrades Belgium’s country risk rating as the economy expands against a positive EU backdrop. Report

Malaysia

The currency depreciates in the latest emerging market sell-off but we do not anticipate a crisis. Report

Netherlands

The economy returns to growth but the labour market is a source of growing concern. Report

veröffentlicht am: 31. Januar 2014