Country Risk Update February 2015

February 2015

Uncertainty will continue to dominate the global environment in the early months of 2015, at the very least. The belated introduction of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) programme worth EUR60bn (USD68bn) per month from March does not appear to have impressed the markets. It is also adding further fuel to the currency war debate as the euro weakens and US dollar strengthens following the end of the US Federal Reserve’s QE programme (worth USD85bn per month) in 2014. The rout in oil prices (with a fall of around 60% since June 2014) allied to weakening commodity prices is adding a further layer of complexity, particularly in relation to the threat of deflation in the euro zone. Finally, political and security factors relating to Russia, the Middle East and the future of Greece in the EU, further undermine the outlook.

The diverging growth patterns among the largest economies are evidently intensifying as the Fed readies to hike rates. In the US and UK growth remains on an upward trend, if lower than potential. However, demand weakness in Japan, China and the euro zone is a dampener on other economies, in particular the commodity-exporting countries

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

 

AFRICA

Tunisia: The outlook improves but risks are on the downside amid weak euro-zone growth.
Uganda: Concerns rise over potential fiscal slippages ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt: D&B upgrades Egypt’s risk rating following a marked improvement in economic performance.
Saudi Arabia: The smooth succession is unlikely to herald dramatic political change.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Greece: A new prime minister is sworn in but political uncertainty lingers.
Switzerland: Monetary policy decisions drive significant currency appreciation and increase insolvency risk.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Serbia: Households leveraged in the strengthening Swiss franc suffer hardship.
Slovakia: Key euro-zone developments obscure the short-term outlook.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

Korea (South): The future is unclear amid the China outlook and deflationary pressures.
Singapore: Lower inflation expectations and weak manufacturing prompt the central bank to adjust policy.

 

AMERICAS

Canada: A contraction in the hydrocarbon sector drags on growth.
United States of America: Quarterly growth slows, but the underlying trend is strong, mainly driven by consumer spending. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

The Country RiskLine reports that used to form part of this monthly update have been replaced with a new monitoring report product – D&B Country Insight Snapshots.

Singapore

Lower inflation expectations and weak manufacturing prompt the central bank to adjust policy. Report

Spain

Improved retail sales and labour market conditions boost the economy. Report

United States of America

Quarterly growth slows, but the underlying trend is strong, mainly driven by consumer spending. Report

veröffentlicht am: 11. Februar 2015