Country Risk Update February 2016

February 2016

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

We estimate that global growth slowed in 2015 to 2.4% from 2.6% the previous year: the joint weakest level since the contraction in 2009. Although, we are forecasting its recovery in 2016 back to 2.6%, risks remain on the downside as a possible downward spiral is created by second-round shocks from commodity price collapses and related asset price falls. The falls in global stock markets in early Q1 show that uncertainty is pervasive, curtailing business confidence and investment, which could add to market volatility. Capital markets are concerned about the outlook for stock, bond and house prices, which have experienced such strong rises since the start of the unprecedented post-crisis monetary easing programmes worth close to USD60trn.

A number of threats to a series of economies are arising amid divergent central bank action, the strong US dollar, near-zero growth in Chinese industrial sectors, and weak commodity prices, in particular oil prices. Furthermore, the potential for rising local and US interest rates, allied to uncertainty in FX markets, is causing concern in relation to both sovereign and corporate debt, especially in vulnerable emerging economies.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Nigeria: The slump in crude prices could drive marginal producers out of business.
Tunisia : Political tensions increase as 28 MPs from the largest party resign.

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook as the authorities grapple with the FX shortage.
United Arab Emirates: The government is to introduce VAT, but not before late 2018.

WESTERN EUROPE

Germany: The number of business failures continues to trend downwards
Spain: The economy expands at its fastest rate in seven years.

EASTERN EUROPE

Czech Republic: The central bank abandons the currency peg for a floating exchange rate.
Turkmenistan: Construction work begins on the much-vaunted TAPI natural gas pipeline.

ASIA PACIFIC

Afghanistan: The granting of WTO membership is imminent after 11 years of negotiations.
Papua New Guinea: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades the rating outlook as negative external factors weaken growth.

AMERICAS

Trinidad & Tobago: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Trinidad and Tobago’s country risk rating as the economy contracts.
United States of America: The strong dollar and low oil prices will hurt investment. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Nigeria

The slump in crude prices could drive marginal producers out of business. Report

Spain

The economy expands at its fastest rate in seven years. Report

Trinidad & Tobago

Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Trinidad and Tobago’s country risk rating as the economy contracts. Report

veröffentlicht am: 16. Februar 2016