Country Risk Update February 2017

February 2017

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

The global economic outlook is being undermined by political factors in early 2017: market and business uncertainty is high pending confirmation of the policy direction of the new US administration and the outcome of the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU. In particular, the rhetoric and early policy decisions of President Trump have already increased concerns about the possibility of an era of trade wars, which – if they happened – would curtail global growth.

According to WTO research, protectionism has been slowly increasing since the global financial crisis in 2008. In addition, the strength of the US dollar will ensure that the pressure remains on emerging market currencies; the dollar’s strength should be set to continue as the Federal Reserve raises its policy rate – even as these remain lower in most other OECD countries. Capital flight from emerging economies will be an ever-present threat in 2017, especially if aligned with domestic political uncertainties and weak economic fundamentals, as in the case of Turkey, which lost its last investment-grade sovereign rating in January.

Elsewhere, there are some more positive prospects: the generally stronger commodity prices being seen in early 2017 should help to boost the economies of commodity exporters; inflation is generally edging up towards policy targets in the OECD; and further marked US dollar strengthening is unlikely.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Angola: President Dos Santos confirms he will not stand for re-election in August.
Sudan: The easing of US sanctions could free up trade and investment opportunities.

MIDDLE EAST

Oman: Discussions take place over financial assistance from Gulf neighbours to support the currency.
Syria: The Russian-Syrian deal on wheat supplies is unlikely to be implemented.

WESTERN EUROPE

Germany: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Germany as the economy produces encouraging news.
United Kingdom: Payments performance remains unaffected by the Brexit vote.

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland: The ruling party stokes further controversy by proposing new legislation governing local elections.
Russian Federation: The central bank keeps interest rates on hold and adopts a more hawkish stance.

ASIA PACIFIC

Australia: Exports help to boost the economy, but risks to regional trade stability are rising.
China: The central bank inches towards a tightening of monetary policy as financial stability concerns resurface.

AMERICAS

Argentina: Economic growth is set to return to positive territory in 2017.
Chile: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Chile’s country risk rating as political uncertainty increases.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Canada

Canada looks to shift its focus as international trade deals start to unravel. Report

France

Political risk is elevated ahead of the upcoming elections, but the economy holds up well. Report

Philippines

Strong domestic consumption and investment drives world-leading growth in 2016. Report

veröffentlicht am: 01. Februar 2017