Country Risk Update January 2014

January 2014

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Key Risks: Getting back to ‘policy-as-usual’ may be what is feared most.

In 2013, financial markets exchanged one fear (that the euro zone would break up), for another: that the ultra-easy policy stances of the G3 economies would not last forever, with unpredictable results for capital flows, asset values and emerging markets. The shoring up of the European monetary union, by building the kind of mechanisms a common currency area requires, can be seen as a temporary success. However, even as the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan eased further in 2013, a hint of US Federal Reserve tightening produced dizzy volatility in emerging market currencies and bond yields. How the Fed’s next step will play out is the key question in 2014, not uncertainty about demand in the US, Europe and Japan (which should gently expand).

The year ahead will bring a host of complex puzzles requiring resolution: whether Ireland can become the first euro casualty to emerge fully from its bailout; whether Brazil can rekindle its sources of economic growth; whether India can control double-digit inflation, without a further sacrifice in growth; and whether China can reform its financial system and vested interests into allocating capital efficiently and without moral hazard. Meanwhile, risks of a political nature (seen lately in the Ukraine and Thailand) could yet bring surprises.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest country risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

South Africa: Weak external demand and faltering domestic demand compound the dour outlook.
Zambia: Increased mining activity will support strong economic growth.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Israel: Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians begin to show tentative signs of progress.
United Arab Emirates: Levels of confidence and activity in the private sector rebound robustly.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Netherlands: The economy grows as the real estate market bottoms out and the euro zone rebounds.
United Kingdom:  The economy continues to grow robustly and looks well-set compared to its European peers.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Hungary: High levels of public debt look to be threatening growth and stability.
Russian Federation: Economic growth looks set to be modest in the year ahead. 

 

ASIA PACIFIC

China: Banking and local government stresses temper optimism over economic prospects.Hong Kong: Economic growth proves resilient to the drop in real estate market activity.

 

AMERICAS

Cuba: The government expands access to credit as it aims to modernise its economic model.
United States: D&B upgrades the US‘ country risk rating as revised data confirms the economic recovery.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

 

Free Country RiskLine Reports

Select the buttons below to link to details on trading terms, payment delays, exchange rates and economic indicators, plus political, economic and commercial risk analysis.

Brazil

A lacklustre economic performance raises questions about the government’s fiscal choices. Report

Denmark

The banking sector stabilises, with the central bank set to scale back support measures. Report

veröffentlicht am: 03. Januar 2014