Country Risk Update January 2015

January 2015

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Global economic growth continues to make slow progress, with diverging growth paths and policy reactions more apparent as 2014 came to a close. The year ended with crude oil prices at a five-year low, with other commodity prices weakening, the US dollar continuing to strengthen and most capital markets’ volatility increasing. Volatility has been exacerbated by geopolitical factors, with Russia barred from attempting to obtain any IMF support after the proxy war in eastern Ukraine.

Oil consumers globally are due for a USD1,500bn infusion via a positive supply shock from sub-USD60/b oil in 2015. Product prices are racing downwards and granting the global aviation and shipping industries, each, cost relief of an estimated USD200m a day. Similarly, end-users such as farmers and fertilizer manufacturers will enjoy a boon from lower diesel and energy prices. Yet, this is hardly a win-win game. Producers and hydrocarbon sectors globally suffer; Venezuela is on the brink already. There will be a second round of effects via trade: already, for example, South Korean companies have seen new Middle Eastern construction contracts grind to a halt.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

 

AFRICA

Congo, Dem. Rep. (Zaire): President Kabilia seeks to strengthen his position by appointing a new cabinet.
Sierra Leone: D&B downgrades Sierra Leone’s country risk rating amid a series of severe disruptions.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Lebanon: Political tension increases as the role of president remains unfilled.
Saudi Arabia: The government cedes control over oil prices to the market.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Italy: A weakening euro and falling oil prices weigh on the economy.
Turkey: Seasonally-adjusted growth figures show a second quarterly contraction.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland: Latest data indicates a slowdown in the manufacturing sector but 2015 is promising.
Slovenia: The outlook for economic growth continues to improve.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

India: The country struggles with high inflation and a tight monetary policy.
Japan: Ruling party wins snap election and retains its majority.

 

AMERICAS

Canada: Non-oil exports and investment to drive growth in 2015.
United States of America: The economy will end the year on a stable note and see modest acceleration in 2015. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

The Country RiskLine reports that used to form part of this monthly update have been replaced with a new monitoring report product – D&B Country Insight Snapshots.

India

The country struggles with high inflation and a tight monetary policy. Report

Portugal

A boost in private consumption help the economy recover to marginal growth. Report

Uruguay

The President-elect faces a challenging economic environment. Report

veröffentlicht am: 14. Januar 2015