Country Risk Update July 2014

July 2014

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Global Economic Outlook

The Q1 2014 growth data was disappointing, in particular for the US, which saw an annualised quarter-on-quarter contraction in real GDP of 2.9%. Although Germany, the UK and Japan outperformed expectations, most advanced and emerging economies performed more weakly than expected. In the meantime, investment in emerging economies is contributing little to growth. We remain cautiously positive about stronger growth into Q4 and therefore overall global prospects in 2014, but with substantial caveats.

For one, the turn of the conflict in Iraq, along with the separatist conflict in Ukraine, is boosting risk premiums for the oil price. In the unlikely event that ISIS’s actions affect production substantially in Iraq’s southern oilfields, prices would break the USD150 per barrel mark, reversing the global recovery. Other headwinds include corrections in China (in the property sector, provincial government finances and heavy industry), low inflation in Europe (holding back recovery), and the uncertainty around the timing of monetary policy tightening by central banks (foremost by the US Federal Reserve).

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Cameroon: Rising oil production and robust demand for commodities boost growth prospects.
Ghana: D&B downgrades Ghana’s country risk rating due to rising inflation and a depreciating currency.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Iran: The country risks being dragged into Iraq’s long-lasting civil conflict.
Oman: Falling oil revenues continue to undermine the fiscal position.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Germany: Insolvency risk continues to fall and forward-looking indicators are encouraging.
United Kingdom:  The short-term economic outlook continues to improve.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Bulgaria: The government collapses amid growing regional tension.
Czech Republic: Export growth provides a boost to the domestic economy.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

China: Corruption and corporate governance could threaten long-term growth.
Indonesia: Political risk worsens amid mounting uncertainty over the presidential election.

 

AMERICAS

Canada: Consumer spending drives short-term economic growth prospects.
Uruguay: The political landscape becomes clearer after presidential candidates are elected. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

 

Free Country RiskLine Reports

Select the buttons below to link to details on trading terms, payment delays, exchange rates and economic indicators, plus political, economic and commercial risk analysis.

Australia

The economy continues on a path of slow and steady consolidation. Report

Bahrain

Conditions worsen as the government moves to limit parliamentary powers. Report

South Africa

Growth in platinum production boosts the near-term economic outlook. Report

 

 

 


veröffentlicht am: 16. Juli 2014