Country Risk Update July 2015

July 2015

Following three years of low global growth we expect growth in 2015 also to be weak at around 2.6%, similar to 2014. The continuing weak growth has impacted global trade volumes which according to WTO data only grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% in Q1 2015, down from 1.8% in the previous quarter. In terms of exports there was a clear divide between emerging economies which saw volumes increase by 1.5% q/q, with all regions except Asia growing by 3% or more. However exports from developed countries fell by 0.5% q/q, with US exports decelerating sharply by 4.5%.

Furthermore, uncertainty around two key issues will continues to act on spending and investment decisions in the short term. The first issue is in relation to future changes in monetary policies, in particular the timing and speed of the US and UK interest rate rises but also how long the ECB and Bank of Japan will maintain their accommodative policies. The second uncertainty is related to the Greek debt negotiations: can a Grexit be stopped safely and if not what will be the contagion effects? Adding to the uncertainty are security risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the strong US dollar is adding to the volatility in the currency, capital and commodity markets.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Angola: The government seeks to fill the growing funding gap by cutting back on spending.

South Africa: The key mining sector will struggle to contribute to growth

MIDDLE EAST

Bahrain: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Bahrain’s country risk rating amid a deteriorating human rights regime.
Iran: The deadline for concluding the nuclear negotiations is not met..

WESTERN EUROPE

Germany: Grexit risk rises amid a moderate slowdown in the domestic economy remain.
United Kingdom: Growth slows amid faltering export performance.

EASTERN EUROPE

Kyrgyz Republic: A plethora of external and internal difficulties make for a dire outlook.
Latvia: The risk of a Greek euro-zone exit rises sharply, with unpredictable consequences.

ASIA PACIFIC

China: The business environment deteriorates amid stock market volatility.
Hong Kong (S.A.R): Employment conditions hold up after most sectors see growth in the first quarter.

AMERICAS

Chile: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Chile’s country risk rating due to political strain and economic weakness.
Guatemala: A corruption scandal sparks a crisis reminiscent of the post-civil war era. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

The Country RiskLine reports that used to form part of this monthly update have been replaced with a new monitoring report product – D&B Country Insight Snapshots.

Chile

Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Chile’s country risk rating due to political strain and economic weakness. Report

Denmark

The general election results in a fragile majority for the centre-right coalition. Report

Indonesia

A new rule makes it illegal to use foreign currency in domestic transactions. Report

 


veröffentlicht am: 01. Juli 2015