Country Risk Update June 2014

June 2014

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Global Economic Outlook: Advanced countries drive growth

Although US growth data for Q1 have been revised downwards (from initial growth of 0.1%, to post an annualised quarter-on-quarter contraction of 1.0%) we remain broadly positive about global prospects in 2014. Advanced economies, led by the US, the UK and Japan continue to strengthen, but growth is forecast to slow in major emerging markets, including Brazil, China and Russia.

Meanwhile, a number of headwinds remain, including vulnerabilities in China (in the property sector, provincial government finances and heavy industry), low inflation in Europe (deflation would impact recovery), ever-shifting expectations around the timing of monetary policy tightening by central banks (foremost by the US Federal Reserve), and political risk premiums. The latter remain elevated (albeit easing) in the context of the Syrian civil war and the separatist conflict in Ukraine. The army coup in Thailand also underlined the sharp urgency of mid-income countries’ national politics.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Angola: Investment and diversification efforts boost non-oil generated tax revenues.
Sudan: Political, security and economic instability weigh on the outlook.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt: A low presidential election turnout highlights a lack of support for the political system.
Oman: Government policy retains its focus on national grievances to ease political risk.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Denmark: D&B upgrades Denmark’s country risk rating amid signs of a sustained recovery.
Germany:  Insolvency risk is falling but payments performance is on a deteriorating trend.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Croatia: Rising imports and heavy debt servicing costs drain FX reserves.
Czech Republic: D&B upgrades Czech Republic’s country risk rating amid a successful monetary stimulus policy.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

China: Corruption and corporate governance could threaten long-term growth.
Indonesia: Political risk worsens amid mounting uncertainty over the presidential election.

 

AMERICAS

Chile: Slowing economic growth restricts planned government reforms.
Costa Rica: A new era of political agreement now appears to be possible.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

 

Free Country RiskLine Reports

Select the buttons below to link to details on trading terms, payment delays, exchange rates and economic indicators, plus political, economic and commercial risk analysis.

Argentina

Debt repayment plans could see the country return to international markets. Report

Hong Kong

Risks from exposure to the fortunes of the mainland economy persist. Report

Norway

Economic growth continues to expand but the threat of oil strikes is imminent. Report

 

 

 


veröffentlicht am: 25. Juni 2014