Uncertainty around short-term growth drivers is undermining the global outlook, with headwinds due to outweigh tailwinds over Q3-Q4. Falling corporate profits in the US, and deepening Chinese producer price deflation, along with the clear dependence of the Eurozone and Japan on quantitative easing, indicate that global growth in 2015 is likely to be around the weak 2.6% level achieved in 2014. India is forecast to grow at 8.4%, the highest level since the global recession, but its new GDP methodology is unproven and its growth does not translate much into global demand.
Recent mixed data means that the debate over the timing and pace of US interest rate rises still weigh on markets. Although our core scenario is still for a September 2015 Fed rate rise, to 0.25%, a lack of decisive economic data could see this first step being put back until December. Second, despite official protestations to the contrary, a Greek exit from European monetary union is looking more probable; and the US Treasury is nervous that the ECB and member states are more focused on exerting discipline on Athens than averting a financial shock. Markets are not necessarily pricing in how new waves of ‘Grexit’ anticipation could affect Spain, Portugal and Italy. Finally, the strong US dollar is adding to the volatility in the currency, capital and commodity markets.
This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.
Angola: A fuel subsidy cut and further currency depreciation will push inflation higher.
South Africa: Agriculture and manufacturing drag down quarterly growth.
|Iran: Nationwide protests and ethnic unrest threaten stability|
Oman: Fiscal revenues slump but government spending levels remain unchanged.
|Austria: Positive growth is confirmed but significant economic and financial risks remain.|
Cyprus: Quarterly growth is seen for the first time in five years.
|Bulgaria: The growth outlook improves amid increases in investment and exports.|
Czech Republic: The economy is the fastest growing in the EU.
|Australia: Mining exports help lift first-quarter growth above expectation.|
Indonesia: Economic growth is below potential but the policy framework improves.
D&B Country Insight Services
D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.
These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.
Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.
To find out more information click here.
D&B Country Insight Snapshots
The Country RiskLine reports that used to form part of this monthly update have been replaced with a new monitoring report product – D&B Country Insight Snapshots.
|Mining exports help lift first-quarter growth above expectation. Report|
|Falling unemployment and strong wage growth boosts household disposable income. Report|
|Private and government consumption drive solid quarterly growth. Report|
veröffentlicht am: 16. Juni 2015