Country Risk Update June 2017

June 2017

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Global economic growth appears to be strengthening after slowing to 2.3% in 2016 (from 2.6% in 2015). We are currently forecasting growth of 2.8% in 2017, the highest since 2011albeit still below the levels seen prior to the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. Fundamentals are improving in the euro zone and the US, with inflation at last moving back towards central bank targets. However, on the downside, there is still considerable uncertainty about China’s ability to avoid a significant downturn as its financial imbalances plague decision-makers.

Moreover, other factors are ensuring that uncertainty remains elevated. Although political concerns are lower than at the start of the year, the US administration still faces significant domestic pressures, and the shape of the UK’s exit from the EU will not be clarified in the short term, keeping business uncertainty high. In addition, forthcoming elections in Italy, which include an anti-EU party, put further pressure on the EU. Meanwhile, as the global economy improves the impact of the necessary normalisation of central banks’ policies is far from clear.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

Angola: The bidding round for eight on-shore oil exploration blocks is cancelled as cost cutting continues.
South Africa: President Zuma survives another leadership challenge but political risk persists.

MIDDLE EAST

Bahrain: The government has intensified its crackdown on the peaceful opposition.
Israel: Growth slows in Q1 due to weaker investment and a decrease in private consumption.

WESTERN EUROPE

Germany: Dun & Bradstreet data confirms the country’s excellent payments performance.
Norway: The mainland economy expands despite a slump in the oil price.

EASTERN EUROPE

Albania: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades Albania’s country risk rating as political conditions improve.
Russian Federation: US-Russia relations remain strained and hopes of a significant rapprochement diminish.

ASIA PACIFIC

Australia: The 2017 Budget marks a shift as the government seeks new revenue in lieu of cuts.
China: The new cyber-security law effective from June will impact a wide range of sectors.

AMERICAS

Argentina: The economy emerges tentatively from recession with an uneven Q1 performance.
Bolivia: A new hike in the minimum wage jeopardises competitiveness and long-term employment growth.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Australia

The 2017 Budget marks a shift as the government seeks new revenue in lieu of cuts. Report

Belgium

The pace of growth in bankruptcies has peaked, and we expect a slowing trend in 2017. Report

Brazil

The president’s legal woes continue amid new accusations. Report

veröffentlicht am: 21. Juni 2017