Country Risk Update June 2016

June 2016

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

We still expect a gentle lull in global economic growth to 2.3% in 2016, down from 2.6% in 2015, reflecting a pull-back in advanced economy growth from 2.0% to 1.7% while emerging economy growth remains at 3.3%, as in 2015. The slight decline in real GDP growth from 2015 levels in the US, despite its firm job market, and in China, as industrial output adjusts to excess capacity, are the largest drivers of the decline.

The recovery in the main oil price benchmarks to USD50 per barrel in May reflected 4m barrels of daily output lost due to supply disruptions, mainly in West Africa and Canada. However, high-cost output globally is also being cut back. In May, our oil price forecast for 2016 was raised from an average USD37.2 per barrel to USD43.7 (and that for 2017 from USD46.6 to USD56.6). As these prices remain below the cost curve for many non-Gulf producers, we expect this to do little to assist distressed oil-producing economies.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Angola: The low oil price environment severely undermines the ability to import goods and services.
South Africa: A credit rating reprieve gives the government more time to improve fiscal targets.

MIDDLE EAST

Iran: The IMF highlights two broad obstacles to growth following the lifting of sanctions.
Oman: The IMF outlines a sharp slowdown in growth.

WESTERN EUROPE

Denmark: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for Denmark as euro-zone monetary policy causes upward pressure on the krone.
Germany: The number of business failures continues to trend downwards in early 2016.

EASTERN EUROPE

Albania: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for Albania as the political opposition resists reforms to the judiciary.
Georgia: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Georgia on the back of positive economic and trade developments.

ASIA PACIFIC

Australia: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades Australia’s country risk rating due to improving short-term economic conditions.
China: Risks are building in weaker and more peripheral parts of the banking system.

 

AMERICAS

Argentina: A tax amnesty for offshore accounts is in the pipelines.
Costa Rica: The central bank rebases the national accounts, giving a truer picture of the economy.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Singapore

The government maintains its reputation as being no-nonsense and business-friendly. Report

Mexico

The government launches a tax evasion probe after the ‚Panama Papers‘ leak. Report

Switzerland

Our proprietary data shows a 9% increase in the number of business failures. Report

veröffentlicht am: 02. Juni 2016