Country Risk Update May 2017

May 2017

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Our global risk trend indicator remains at stable, while we are currently forecasting real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2017 against an estimated 2.3% in 2016. Political concerns remain high, although these seem to have abated slightly for all major economies asides from the UK. In particular, the protectionist rhetoric of the Trump campaign has yet to materialise in full, with the NAFTA treaty now set to be renegotiated rather than ripped up. The victory of  Emmanuel Macron in France’s presidential election reinforces the impression that the European electorate has halted its drift towards anti-EU parties.

Two further issues continue to cloud the outlook for business in 2017. The first is oil price uncertainty ahead of June, when the OPEC production agreement ends. Saudi Arabia wants to roll the cuts over for at least another few months, but questions remain over compliance to the agreement by the parties involved, and hence the downside range for oil prices. The second uncertainty is more far-reaching. If economic growth gathers pace as our forecasts suggest, the normalisation of monetary policy outside the US still raises questions as to how central banks will sell their huge asset piles, and how the financial sector will react.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Gabon: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Gabon as the oil price recovers and spending is trimmed.
South Africa: The rand is destablised due to a credit rating downgrade by international ratings agencies.

MIDDLE EAST

Iran: The presidential election in May will be fought by six candidates, with a reformist expected to win.
Oman: Tourism potential is boosted through airline development, increasing the number of routes and flights.

WESTERN EUROPE

France: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades France’s country risk rating as Emmanuel Macron is elected president.
United Kingdom: Polls indicate a comfortable win for the current government in snap elections on 8 June.

EASTERN EUROPE

Czech Republic: The central bank abandons the exchange rate ceiling on the koruna.
Russian Federation: The economy exits recession in Q4 2016, with recovery expected to gain momentum this year.

ASIA PACIFIC

Australia: The growth outlook is uncertain as economic data remains mixed.
China: The pace of real GDP growth in Q1 will prove unsustainable.

AMERICAS

Argentina: Unions lead a 24-hour strike as wage talks with the government break down.
Chile: Poor GDP data continues, prompting the central bank to reduce its reference interest rate again..

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Argentina

Unions lead a 24-hour strike as wage talks with the government break down. Report

France

Dun & Bradstreet upgrades France’s country risk rating as Emmanuel Macron is elected president. Report

Iran

The presidential election in May will be fought by six candidates, with a reformist expected to win. Report

veröffentlicht am: 15. Mai 2017