Country Risk Update March 2016

March 2016

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

We forecast global economic growth in 2016 of 2.4%, close to the estimated 2.4% for 2015. This lines up with the rest of the post-2012 experience in being below pre-crisis trends. Risks remain on the downside as uncertainty prevails regarding the direction of corporate profits, due to both US dollar strength and deteriorated fundamentals in the emerging markets that were the darlings of the post-crisis boom. Deflationary pressure has played out in increasing trade protectionism in intermediate goods such as steel in 2015, with India, Russia and the US the most active, according to the WTO.

The outlook is being exacerbated by fresh concerns about vulnerabilities in the banking sector in the advanced countries in relation to its exposure to loans in the energy sector and to the emerging markets. In addition, in Europe worries have increased over the referendum in June 2016 as to whether or not the UK should remain in the EU, as the strong US dollar, near-zero growth in Chinese industrial sectors, and weak commodity prices are adding further downsides to our growth forecasts, as the revision of our real GDP growth forecast for the US from 2.7% to 2.1% in February showed. The concern is that data show weakness spreading from out of manufacturing into small businesses.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Uganda: President Museveni wins another term at questionable February elections.
Zimbabwe : Economic prospects deteriorate amidst the worst drought in a generation.

MIDDLE EAST

Israel: Revised growth figures for 2015 reflect higher investment as well as government and household spending.
Saudi Arabia: The government’s funding of its fiscal position leads to a tightening of liquidity

WESTERN EUROPE

Switzerland: Latest data show a fall in business failures.

EASTERN EUROPE

Slovakia: Slovakia makes little progress in tackling corruption.
Slovenia: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for Slovenia amid risks to the cross-border passage of goods.

ASIA PACIFIC

India: Inflation, growth, and balance of payments trends all seem favourable.
Philippines: The economy remains one of the world’s fastest-growing driven by investment and consumption.

AMERICAS

Canada: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Canada’s country risk rating amid early-2016 economic sluggishness.
United States of America: Headwinds faced by small businesses increase, prompting a growth forecast downgrade.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Philippines

The economy remains one of the world’s fastest-growing driven by investment and consumption. Report

Iran

Dun & Bradstreet upgrades Iran’s country risk rating as most international sanctions are lifted. Report

United States of America

Headwinds faced by small businesses increase, prompting a growth forecast downgrade. Report

 


veröffentlicht am: 15. März 2016