Country Risk Update March 2017

March 2017

As highlighted in the recently released World Bank report Trade Developments in 2016, the global policy outlook for 2017 continues to face headwinds from political uncertainty in a number of advanced countries. Businesses and markets face an uncertain period over the policy direction of the new US administration, the outcome of the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU, and the elections in a number of major European countries that could impact the future of the euro zone and the EU. Yet ‘animal spirits’ remained in evidence in February, as investors were more keen to focus on the pro-business agenda of the Trump administration than the risks to efficient international trade or slowing US credit growth. That said, we expect the policy uncertainty to reduce from Q3-Q4 2017.

More positively, the threat of deflation is abating as inflation picks up towards central bank targets in many advanced countries, including in the US and Europe. Furthermore, in emerging markets that have suffered above-target inflation, such as Brazil, Argentina and Peru, inflation is trending down. Nevertheless, inflation is still sub-par in Japan, and above-target inflation is a policy challenge in Turkey. Furthermore, a surge in inflation pressure is emerging as a problem for countries in the Middle East with exchange rates pegged to the US dollar, such as Saudi Arabia, where monetary policy cannot respond.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Algeria: Inflation rises sharply on the back of tax rate and fuel duty hikes.
South Africa: Tax hikes and budget cuts are proposed to reassure international investors.

MIDDLE EAST

Iran: The IMF commends the authorities on the improved macroeconomic position.
Oman: The government amends the corporate tax law to boost fiscal revenues.

WESTERN EUROPE

Cyprus: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades Cyprus’s country risk rating due to an ongoing improvement in the macroeconomic environment.
Norway: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Norway due to a recovery from the oil price slump.

EASTERN EUROPE

Croatia: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Croatia due to strong GDP growth.
Russian Federation: The economy posts a milder than expected contraction in 2016.

ASIA PACIFIC

Australia: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Australia due to an improvement in the economic outlook.
China: The government lowers growth target and aims to rein in upstream industry and financial system risks.

AMERICAS

Argentina: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades Argentina’s country risk rating as growth prospects improve.
Chile: Growth forecast is hit by an ongoing strike at the world’s largest copper mine.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Chile

Growth forecast is hit by an ongoing strike at the world’s largest copper mine. Report

Indonesia

A damaging dispute in the mining sector disrupts copper output. Report

Iran

The IMF commends the authorities on the improved macroeconomic position. Report

veröffentlicht am: 01. März 2017