Country Risk Update May 2016

May 2016

 

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Despite the IMF having downgraded its global real GDP growth forecast for 2016 by 0.2 percentage points in April, we believe that the considerable headwinds facing the world economy have abated in past weeks. Nevertheless, we are still forecasting lower real GDP growth in 2016 of 2.3% against 2.5% in 2015, which was one of the weakest since the official end of the global recession in 2009.

The easing of headwinds centre around fewer expected rate rises by the US Federal Reserve in 2016, which has seen upward pressure on the US dollar ease and improved stability in FX markets. In addition, commodity prices have stabilised since April after rebounding from lows in the early part of 2016.  Central banks, particularly in Europe and Japan, continue with supportive monetary policies. Thus, although we expect periodic bouts of market volatility continuing at least into 2017, greater stability should support business confidence, and therefore investment. As a result we expect growth to strengthen in 2017 to 2.9%, well above the 2.3-2.6% range across 2012 to 2016.  

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Tunisia: The tourism crisis continues to undermine the overall risk outlook.
Uganda: The economy is expected to enjoy fairly rapid growth despite strong headwinds.

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt : An islands deal with Saudi Arabia provokes serious anti-government protests.
Saudi Arabia: The government raises billions in international debt in order to fund the fiscal deficit.

WESTERN EUROPE

Spain: Growth is faster than in most other euro-zone countries, but political uncertainty remains elevated.
Turkey: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Turkey on the back of improved macroeconomic data.

EASTERN EUROPE

Estonia: The government’s fiscal prudence and low level of debt underpins the country’s strong ratings.
Slovenia: The government makes progress in stabilising public spending.

ASIA PACIFIC

India: Economic growth rate forecasts are cut further.
Singapore: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for Singapore as overall growth and trade slows.

AMERICAS

Brazil : President Dilma Rousseff moves closer to an impeachment trial.
Canada: The Bank of Canada makes an upbeat assessment of the economy.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Brazil

President Dilma Rousseff moves closer to an impeachment trial. Report

Malaysia

The ringgit recovers some losses but we expect continued volatility in 2016. Report

Belgium

Domestic and regional political risk increases in the aftermath of the March terror attacks. Report

veröffentlicht am: 02. Mai 2016