Country Risk Update November 2013

November 2013

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Despite the fiscal headlines, the outlook for 2014 is gradually improving. Although political difficulties over the US budget and debt ceiling will curtail US growth in Q4, we remain optimistic about the growing strength of the US economy.

The shift in the timing of the Federal Reserve ratcheting back asset purchases within its ‘QE’ programme to the end of 2013 / early 2014 has buoyed sentiment and narrowed risk aversion globally in the short-term,  but when the Federal Reserve again considers reining in asset purchases and the federal debt ceiling is tested again, there will be a return of risk aversion globally.

Meanwhile, new sources of potential financial-system risks are emerging from highly leveraged corporates in China and South Korea. Although we have upgraded the global outlook for 2014, substantial risks persist.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest country risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Gabon: Recent gas discoveries boost the country’s outlook.

Tunisia: Political tension undermines the country’s short-term outlook.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Jordan: A weak economy and domestic political tension undermine the outlook.

Qatar: The government moves to control any build up of public debt.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Germany: The important manufacturing sector continues to improve.

Finland: The outlook for the country’s external accounts improves.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Estonia: Rapidly rising wages threaten the country’s competitiveness.

Poland: A rise in orders boosts optimism in the manufacturing sector.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

Japan: The current account deficit widens to its worst level in years.

Philippines: D&B downgrades the Philippines‘ country risk rating due to significant damage caused by typhoon Haiyan.

 

AMERICAS

Ecuador: Maintenance works at the Esmeraldas oil refinery will affect near-term growth.

El Salvador: The upcoming presidential election dominates the outlook. 

 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

 

Free Country RiskLine Reports

Select the buttons below to link to details on trading terms, payment delays, exchange rates and economic indicators, plus political, economic and commercial risk analysis.

Canada

Economic indicators are mixed and suggest a significant upturn in growth is unlikely in the near term.  Report

Spain  

Soft growth for real disposable income and high levels of unemployment continue to impede spending.  Report

Turkey

Public support for Turkey to join the EU is waning as talks are repeatedly delayed.  Report

veröffentlicht am: 19. November 2013