Country Risk Update November 2014

November 2014

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Global Economic Outlook: Q3 US growth masks domestic weakness

The choppy, uneven global recovery continues amid diverging growth patterns. Positively, the first estimates for US growth in Q3 were above market expectations, at an annualised 3.5%; however, domestic drivers remain weak with the major impetus coming from strong export growth, which given global demand weakness is unlikely to be replicated going forward. Meanwhile, the euro zone faces the prospect of entering an unprecedented triple dip recession, and growth in major emerging markets continues to slow. As such, we forecast real global growth of 2.3% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015.

However, despite the marked fall in oil prices downside risks still outweigh upside risks. In particular, with the US Federal Reserve quantitative easing programme ended, market uncertainty is now focused on the timing and size of the inevitable interest rate rises. Markets are also unsettled by the consequent strengthening of the US dollar, while the reduction in global liquidity will hit capital flows into the emerging markets and the prospect of deflation threatens European growth prospects.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

 

AFRICA

Uganda: GDP growth is accelerating in 2014 following service sector growth.
Tunisia: Parliamentary elections a major indicator of successful democratic consolidation.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt: D&B upgrades Egypt’s country risk rating following increased economic performance.
Israel: Peace talks postponed indefinitely following an attack in Cairo.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Spain: ECB stress tests bode well for the significantly restructured banking sector.
SwitzerlandThe number of business failures increases yet again.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Serbia: There has been a notable rise in international competitiveness.
Slovakia: Slovakia’s deep integration into the euro zone leaves it particularly exposed to the downturn.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

Afghanistan: Ashraf Ghani has been inaugurated as new Afghan president.
Thailand: Government stimulus package announced, targeting infrastructure.

 

AMERICAS

Venezuela: Political risks remain elevated as fresh anti-government protests erupt.
USA: GDP manages to outperform market expectations in Q3, despite falling external demand. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

The Country RiskLine reports that used to form part of this monthly update have been replaced with a new monitoring report product – D&B Country Insight Snapshots.

Colombia

Government changes course on tax reform amid business community protests. Report

Lithuania

Economic sentiment declines further following the widespread Russian food ban. Report

Taiwan

The economy is growing steadily following brighter Q2 data, with exports benefiting from strong demand. Report

 

 


veröffentlicht am: 17. November 2014