Country Risk Update November 2015

November 2015

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

The headwinds from the emerging economies, in particular China, along with weaker than hoped for growth in the advanced economies are posing problems for the world’s central banks. As of end-October, 45 central banks had introduced more easing in 2015, while only 23 had tightened monetary policy. Following its two-day, October meeting, the US Federal Reserve held its rate at the record low of 0.00% to 0.25%; unchanged since December 2008. The Fed noted that US growth was still expanding at a moderate rate, while risks to economic activity and the labour market were balanced.

In contrast, in late October, the ECB unsettled markets by setting expectations that it would expand its EUR1.1trn quantitative easing programme at its December meeting, with the possibility of cutting its interest rate should the downturn in emerging markets threaten the Euro zone’s recovery. Meanwhile, with Japan on the edge of a technical recession and inflation falling well short of target, the Bank of Japan rejected pressure to expand its programme of bond purchases in October, which, being worth close to 10% of GDP a year, is already far in excess of the ECB programme in relative size.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Libya: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Libya but pessimism surrounds the UN-brokered agreement.

Zambia: Growth and stability are undermined by power shortages and mine closures

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt: The central bank governor resigns after a currency devaluation.
Syria: Kurdish groups begin selling oil autonomously, earning significant oil revenues.

WESTERN EUROPE

Spain: Political uncertainties increase as the general election approaches.
Switzerland: An electoral shift could cause the long-term economic outlook to deteriorate.

ASIA PACIFIC

Afghanistan: The US is to maintain its military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2017.
South Korea: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook as the economy shows resilience.

EASTERN EUROPE

Slovakia: Government hostility towards Italian energy firm Enel highlights the risks to foreign investors.
Slovenia: The government may tighten its border with Croatia as the refugee flow turns west.

AMERICAS

Colombia: The central bank hikes the benchmark rate as inflationary pressures build.
United States of America: The US expansion remains intact despite a slowdown in Q3. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

The Country RiskLine reports that used to form part of this monthly update have been replaced with a new monitoring report product – D&B Country Insight Snapshots.

United States of America

The US expansion remains intact despite a slowdown in Q3. Report

Philippines

Business opportunities abound as demographics and economic structure enable long-term growth. Report

Switzerland

An electoral shift could cause the long-term economic outlook to deteriorate. Report

veröffentlicht am: 16. November 2015