Country Risk Update November 2016

November 2016

 

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

A series of political uncertainties into 2017 are weighing on the already weak global economic outlook. With resurgent nationalism and protectionism, in both goods and labour markets, impacting on election cycles globally, the November 2016 presidential election results in the US have set the tone for economic developments out into the medium term. Markets had failed to price in the chances of the Trump victory bringing an increase in populist trends into global political discourse.

However, the shock of the Brexit vote in the UK had already showed that markets fail to price in political risk. In addition, parliamentary polls are scheduled in The Netherlands, France and Germany in 2017 (plus presidential elections in Austria in December 2016 and in France in Q2 2017). Thus, several key economies in Europe could see a change of government policies towards the economy and the EU itself in the next twelve months.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Theresa May has announced that the UK will initiate Article 50, triggering the two-year period for leaving the EU, by end-Q1 2017. Worryingly, the indications are that the UK will adopt a strategy around a ‘hard’ exit restricting migrants, which is liable to increase the radical uncertainty for businesses into the medium term. Moreover, the threat from President-elect Donald Trump to withdraw the US from NAFTA has parallels with the 1930 ‚Smoot-Hawley‘ Tariff Act which impeded the recovery from the Great Depression.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Cameroon: Pro-trade reforms and infrastructure investment improve the ease of doing business.
Ethiopia: The government declares a state of emergency in response to disruptive demonstrations.

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt: The central bank floats the currency amid a heavy devaluation.
Lebanon: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Lebanon as the position of president is finally filled.

WESTERN EUROPE

Germany: The country’s international competitiveness slips marginally.
United Kingdom: Brexit’s unknown long-term effects still cloud the outlook despite robust quarterly growth.

EASTERN EUROPE

Croatia: The new government is minded to cut corporation and income tax.
Russian Federation: Russia seeks to develop the Northern Sea shipping route as climate change melts Arctic ice.

ASIA PACIFIC

China: The real estate boom has helped the economy but may already have run its course.
Indonesia: Inflation trends created room for an interest rate cut in October.

AMERICAS

Bolivia: Real GDP growth slowdown leads to the cancellation of the extra year-end wage bonus.
United States of America: Growth remains on track but near-term uncertainty rises over the new government’s policies.
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D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Brazil

Economic signals remain mixed but contraction gradually decelerates. Report

Germany

The country’s international competitiveness slips marginally. Report

Japan

The current account balance improves due to cheap energy prices and plummeting imports. Report

veröffentlicht am: 16. November 2016