Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Insight Update.
Global growth for 2017 is set to come in at 2.9%, the highest level since 2011, and will improve further to 3.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Our positive view is supported by the IMF’s October upgrade of its forecasts. Furthermore, the WTO also sharply revised upwards its forecasts for world trade in 2017 on the back of a strong first half performance. More generally, employment data are strong, and commodity prices have rebounded from their 2016 lows. The latter favours the outlook for commodity-exporting countries but also the incentive for inventory-building globally; inventory growth in Q3 in the US was a sizeable boost to the real GDP growth first estimate of 3% (annualised). Markets also appear to have built in fairly stable expectations around the normalisation of central bank policy as quantitative easing is wound down and interest rates rise, as shown by the neutral FX and stock response to the ECB policy announcement in October.
Meanwhile, political risk, although remaining elevated, has eased to a degree since the start of 2017. In particular, the checks and balances of the US political system have ensured more policy certainty than initially predicted following the election of President Trump. Although Brexit negotiations are proving inconclusive at present, businesses continue to operate under existing EU rules, ensuring stability in our short-term forecast period; while the apocalyptic prospect of a US-North Korea nuclear war seems delayed as both consider their how their interests lie in détente, even as President Trump’s visit to Asia in November sees a US military build-up in the region.
This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks..
|Cameroon: Large infrastructure projects drive economic growths.|
South Africa: The ANC’s December decision on a new leader could determine President Zuma’s fate.
|Iran: US decertification of the nuclear deal raises the spectre of further sanctions.|
Syria: The tribes‘ return to political prominence has implications for the business environment.
|Germany: Coalition talks are making only slow progress.|
United Kingdom: An interest rate rise creates more headwinds for the economy.
|Belarus: The government would like to open new partnerships with the West.|
Bulgaria: The parliament approves a bill to create a single anti-corruption body.
|China: President Xi’s elevation comes amid serious environmental and governance challenges.|
Indonesia: The World Bank recognises the improvements made to the business environment.
|Argentina: Proposed tax reforms are intended to modernise the economy.|
Guatemala: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for Guatemala as a new political crisis unfolds.
D&B Country Insight Services
D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.
These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.
Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.
To find out more information click here.
NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots
Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
|Advances in technology and telecommunications raise Costa Rica’s global competitiveness. Report|
|An interest rate rise creates more headwinds for the economy. Report|
|Economic growth rebounds in Q3. Report|
veröffentlicht am: 15. November 2017