Country Risk Update October 2016

October 2016

 

The major central banks continue to be concerned by weak growth – globally and in their jurisdictions – and by inflation, which continues to run at below-target levels. Consequently, at its September meeting the US Federal Reserve – as expected – did not raise its policy rate. Nevertheless, we believe that the Fed will raise interest rates at its December meeting, with two further rises in 2017. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Japan evolved its unconventional approach to monetary easing by introducing a target for ten-year interest rates (the benchmark rate for long-term interest rates) in relation to its bond-buying programme.

The move by the Bank of Japan highlights the dearth of options facing central bankers when policy rates are close to zero (or in some cases negative). Although questions are being raised about how effective central bank policies can be given that interest rates are already so low, the lack of demand in the real economy leaves the authorities with little alternative in the short term but to rely on monetary easing. However, concerns remain that the longer-term impact will be the creation of asset price imbalances and bubbles.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Kenya: The authorities act to counter a sharp slowdown in private-sector credit growth.
Malawi: The country struggles to meet IMF programme targets because of a severe drought.

MIDDLE EAST

Jordan: Elections produce a parliament unlikely to challenge the government, ensuring political risks remain elevated.
United Arab Emirates: The latest PMI data indicates a temporary slowing of the economy.

WESTERN EUROPE

France: Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe is well placed to be elected president in 2017.
Ireland: Economic indicators hint at improvement but short-term Brexit risks remain.

EASTERN EUROPE

Latvia: Growth forecast is revised downwards due to weak investment and export data.
Romania: The supply of credit to the corporate sector falls year-on-year despite improvements.

ASIA PACIFIC

Myanmar: Robust economic prospects accompany rising inflation.
Pakistan: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for Pakistan amid renewed tensions over Kashmir.

AMERICAS

Brazil: Economic signals remain mixed but contraction gradually decelerates.
Honduras: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Honduras due to a strengthening economy.
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D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Australia

Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Australia as growth fundamentals improve. Report

Colombia

A national plebiscite on the peace agreement in October is likely to be ratified by voters. Report

Norway

The central bank keeps interest rates low. Report

veröffentlicht am: 01. Oktober 2016