Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.
Our forecast for real GDP global growth for 2017 is 2.9%, the strongest since 2010 and 2011, when the economy rebounded after the contraction brought about by the global financial crisis. However, from a high of 4.2% in 2010, global growth slowed to an average of 2.6% between 2012 and 2016. Looking ahead to 2018, upside and downside economic risks seem to be balanced. Demand in the real sector continues to pick up, while inflation remains benign and employment is picking up. However, low interest rates and low inflation have prompted risk taking in the financial sector, with the result that assets bubbles are now a significant risk.
By contrast, policy uncertainty and security risks across the globe remain elevated. In the US, partisan politics threaten agreement over raising the debt ceiling, while in Asia-Pacific, tensions with North Korean continue to ratchet up. In Latin America, democracy is being undermined in Venezuela, and in Europe, the German election result, forthcoming Italian election and Brexit negotiations dominate the near-term agenda. Meanwhile, insecurity in the Ukraine shows no signs of abating, while security risk is high across the Middle East and North Africa. And yet growth conditions and asset prices have remained insulated from these pressures, buttressed by policy stances that will only be slowly removed in 2018. The question is whether escalation risk around North Korea is priced in.
This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.
|Kenya: Business confidence has been undermined by election-related uncertainties.|
Malawi: Plans are made with the IMF for a second extended credit facility.
|Jordan: Growth is at its lowest level since Q1 2011.|
United Arab Emirates: Growth in the second-largest emirate, Dubai, slows in Q1.
|France: Forward-looking indicators continue to improve.|
Spain: Political tension is elevated amid Catalonia’s demand for independence.
|Hungary: Relations with the EU come under further strain.|
Romania: The government is trying to rein in the Anti-Corruption Directorate.
|China: Growth drivers will weaken after the party congress and into 2018.|
New Zealand: The hung parliament is likely to result in policy changes.
|Brazil: New corruption charges are laid against the president.|
USA: The economy remains on track for 2% growth this year.
D&B Country Insight Services
D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.
These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.
Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.
To find out more information click here.
NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots
Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
|Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for Germany as the election outcome increases the political risk. Report|
|The King’s crack-down on internal dissent suggests rising political tensions. Report|
Trinidad & Tobago
|Two new gas finds will help boost energy output. Report|
veröffentlicht am: 17. Oktober 2017