Country Risk Update September 2014

September 2014

Global Economic Outlook: US and China post improved Q2 growth

Our medium-term forecasts indicate that the global recovery will ultimately become more embedded, with real GDP growth to increase in each year to 2017 (albeit staying lower than the pre-crisis period). The latest housing data from the US indicate that the sector, which had been acting as a brake on consumer confidence, is on track, with the July homebuilder index reaching its highest level since January. Encouragingly, in July, building permits issued rose 8.1% month on month (m/m), new starts surged 15.7% m/m, existing home sales hit a 10-month peak, and distressed sales hit a six-year low.

Nevertheless, we remain concerned that central banks are unable either to restore more familiar labour market and inflation dynamics or unwind potential bubbles (such as housing in London or the Netherlands, and US junk bonds). Furthermore, concerns about imbalances in China and the debt hangover in Europe remain, while geo-political risks in Ukraine, and Iraq and Syria, could yet threaten the stability of energy markets.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Cameroon: Robust demand for commodity exports and sizeable infrastructure investment boost prospects.
Ghana: Rising inflation and a depreciating currency cloud the risk outlook.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Bahrain: The political scene remains highly polarised and economic figures are disappointing.
Iran: The government unveils the extent of corruption in the previous administration.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Austria: Economic growth is weak while concerns persist over the impact of the Ukraine crisis.
Germany: Falling investment and weak private consumption impact economic growth.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Bulgaria: A rise in electricity prices will undermine the competitiveness of manufactured goods.
Russian Federation: D&B downgrades Russia’s country risk rating due to the impact of the Ukraine conflict.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

Australia: Growth remains lacklustre amid rising unemployment and an overheating housing market.
Indonesia: Political conditions stabilise as the courts confirm the president’s victory.

 

AMERICAS

Argentina: The government acts to swap jurisdictions on the sovereign bond issue.
Chile: Economic growth falters amid slack domestic demand. 

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

Free Country RiskLine Reports

Select the buttons below to link to details on trading terms, payment delays, exchange rates and economic indicators, plus political, economic and commercial risk analysis.

China

Credit and financial risks rise as the country enters a more difficult phase of its financial cycle. Report

Czech Republic

The short-term economic outlook looks ominous amid rising East-West tensions. Report

Turkey

Political tensions remain high following President Erdogan’s narrow election victory.  Report

 

 

 


veröffentlicht am: 18. September 2014