Country Risk Update September 2016

September 2016

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Markets and businesses have had time to consider the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Although the timing of the exit and the nature of the future relationship between the EU and the UK remains unclear, the worst aspects of the initial Brexit tantrum have subsided as the world faces the new normal. The Vix volatility index slid to its lowest level since August 2014, while oil rebounded to its pre-Brexit price of around USD50/b. Nevertheless, uncertainty continues to dominate the global economic outlook.

In this regard, attention is now turning to when the US fed will raise interest rates. Our core scenario is that there will be one further interest rate rise before the end of 2016. The Fed is concerned about slowing the already anaemic recovery but is weighing this against the possibility of risky imbalances arising from the years of loose monetary policy by the world’s leading central banks. Against this background, we are currently forecasting that global real GDP growth will slow to 2.2% in 2016, from 2.5% in 2015, with all regions performing more poorly than in 2015 – with the notable exception of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Cameroon: The country implements a free-trade deal with the EU.
South Africa: The country appears set to go into technical recession.

Bahrain : The country achieves strong growth in the first quarter, driven by oil and construction

Bahrain : The country achieves strong growth in the first quarter, driven by oil and construction.
Iran: Non-US banks are wary of becoming involved in doing business with the country.

WESTERN EUROPE

Austria : The far-right candidate looks to be edging towards the presidency.
Germany : Political risk rises as local elections end in heavy defeat for Chancellor Merkel’s party.

EASTERN EUROPE

Croatia: The main political parties all support tax cuts in the upcoming elections.
Russian Federation: The economy appears to be on the cusp of emerging from recession.

ASIA PACIFIC

Australia: The short-term economic outlook is weighted to the downside.
China: The medium-term consumption outlook remains vulnerable.

AMERICAS

Argentina: A supreme court ruling brings gas price hikes to a temporary halt.
Guatemala: A reform package envisages new and higher taxes to boost the low tax take.
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D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Canada

The goods trade deficit reaches a new record low in the second quarter. Report

Vietnam

Tensions with China rise over military deployments in the South China Sea. Report

Greece

The economic recovery struggles to take hold, but labour market conditions improve. Report

veröffentlicht am: 01. September 2016