Country Risk Update September 2017

September 2017

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Our global risk trend indicator remains at stable, while we are currently forecasting real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2017 against an estimated 2.3% in 2016. Political concerns remain high, although these seem to have abated slightly for all major economies asides from the UK. In particular, the protectionist rhetoric of the Trump campaign has yet to materialise in full, with the NAFTA treaty now set to be renegotiated rather than ripped up. The victory of  Emmanuel Macron in France’s presidential election reinforces the impression that the European electorate has halted its drift towards anti-EU parties.

Two further issues continue to cloud the outlook for business in 2017. The first is oil price uncertainty ahead of June, when the OPEC production agreement ends. Saudi Arabia wants to roll the cuts over for at least another few months, but questions remain over compliance to the agreement by the parties involved, and hence the downside range for oil prices. The second uncertainty is more far-reaching. If economic growth gathers pace as our forecasts suggest, the normalisation of monetary policy outside the US still raises questions as to how central banks will sell their huge asset piles, and how the financial sector will react.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Ghana: The central bank revokes bank licences over liquidity concerns.
South Africa: Pressure mounts on President Zuma as the ANC gears up for its leadership summit.

MIDDLE EAST

Iran: Pressure from the US increases to scupper the internationally-brokered nuclear deal.
Syria: The coming offensive in Deir al-Zour will be crucial.

WESTERN EUROPE

Belgium: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Belgium as the economy expands steadilyt.
Iceland: The booming economy significantly increases Iceland’s attractiveness to foreign retailers.

EASTERN EUROPE

Czech Republic: Growth forecasts are upgraded for both 2017 and 2018.
Russian Federation: The central bank steps in to rescue Russia’s largest private lender.

ASIA PACIFIC

Australia: Declining dwelling approvals and falling consumer confidence will affect growth.
China: The economy has been stabilised in time for the party congress.

AMERICAS

Argentina: The US and Argentina strike a trade deal.
Brazil: Congress pushes ahead with political reforms.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Peru

The government declares a state of emergency as labour unrest escalates. Report
 SwitzerlandFull order books in manufacturing and services indicate a strong end to the year. Report

Thailand

Economic performance continues to improve at a modest pace. Report

veröffentlicht am: 19. September 2017