Country Risk Update October 2013

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Risk Update.

Forward-looking indicators provide support for our improved real GDP growth forecasts for 2014. August’s JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index hit its highest level since January 2011, recording 55.2, up from 54.0 in July.

Importantly, new orders in the Index hit a 30-month high, boosting payroll numbers. In country terms, the US, the UK and Ireland recorded the highest monthly improvement, with China easing concerns about its slowdown, and recording a five-month high. However, areas of concern remain with France and Brazil and the downturn in India accelerating.

Although we are more optimistic about growth in 2014, levels are still muted compared with the pre-crisis trend and significant headwinds remain: with heightened vulnerabilities to shocks remaining in high public debt levels, particularly in the public sector in the OECD; in concerns over the phasing out of the US’ quantitative easing programme, which unless handled with care could see high levels of financial market volatility; in the lack of progress on necessary restructuring issues across the emerging markets; and in increased levels of political risk.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest country risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Congo, Dem. Rep.: Renewed peace talks and international mediation aim to resolve the damaging conflict.Nigeria: The economic outlook improves slightly as inflationary risks abate.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Norway: A new broadly pro-business government boosts the country’s long-term prospects.United Kingdom: D&B upgrades the United Kingdom’s country risk rating as the economy gains momentum.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

Czech Republic: Political risk threatens the improving state of the public finances.Kazakhstan: The country’s medium to long-term growth potential sees a downward adjustment.

 

ASIA PACIFIC

Afghanistan: Political and security risks are high as NATO operations wind down.Pakistan: The government suffers an early setback in its economic reform agenda.

 

AMERICA

Colombia: The central bank maintains its overnight lending rate for the sixth month.Costa Rica: Public finance woes deepen as debt comes under the spotlight.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

Free Country RiskLine Reports

Select the buttons below to link to details on trading terms, payment delays, exchange rates and economic indicators, plus political, economic and commercial risk analysis.

Ireland

The country’s short-term outlook remains uncertain.  Report

Panama

The short-term outlook remains broadly stable against a backdrop of solid economic growth.  Report

Paraguay

Pressing fiscal challenges and differences within the ruling party undermine the risk outlook.  Report

veröffentlicht am: 13. November 2013