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Country Risk Update April 2017

April 2017

The global economy continues to record solid expansion as measured by various PMIs. The euro-zone’s IHS Markit PMI reached 56.7 in March – its highest level in six-years. Meanwhile, the US manufacturing Markit PMI weakened slightly in February from its 22-month high in January, a pattern followed by the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI. The forward-looking indicators suggest stronger global growth in 2017 on the back of improved business conditions. We are currently forecasting global output growth to improve from an estimated 2.3% in 2016 to 2.7% in 2017.

Although the parliamentary election in The Netherlands saw the populist candidate defeated, political uncertainty continues to weigh on the outlook in a number of advanced countries. The overall policy direction of the Trump administration still lacks clarity, and markets in the US have weakened as the initial euphoria over the result fades and as splits within the Republican party over health deepen. Other concerns revolve around the outcome of the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU, and around other elections in major European countries, which could impact the future of the euro zone and EU.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Kenya: The 2017/18 Budget targets an increase in household spending and much greater business investment.
South Africa: International ratings agencies downgrade South African sovereign debt to ‚junk‘ status.

MIDDLE EAST

Jordan: The weakest growth this century and rapidly-rising inflation increase short-term risk.
United Arab Emirates: Dubai increases its investment inflows, helping reduce the UAE’s dependency on oil and gas revenues.

WESTERN EUROPE

Ireland: Political risk is on the rise as early elections look likely.
Luxembourg: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Luxembourg as economic conditions continue to improve.

EASTERN EUROPE

Hungary: New legislation aims to weaken the foreign-owned supermarket sector.
Latvia: Amendments to the Energy Law officially open up Latvia’s gas market to competition.

ASIA PACIFIC

China: North China aims to reinvent its growth model, in a special zone south of Beijing.
New Zealand: Inventory-buildup helps to mask slower growth in Q4 GDP.

AMERICAS

Brazil: The government presses ahead with simplifying the notoriously onerous tax code.
Dominican Republic: The central bank votes to keep its main interest rate on hold.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Germany

Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Germany due to growing optimism, both economically and politically. Report

USA

The Republican Party’s majority does not guarantee smooth policy passage. Report

Vietnam

Officials show concern over exports‘ heavy dependence on foreign direct investment. Report

veröffentlicht am: 01. April 2017