Aktuelle Beiträge

Country Risk Update August 2017

August 2017

Country Insight Update

August 2017

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B’s Country Insight Update.

Into H2 2017, we continue to forecast stronger world growth for the year at 2.8%, up from 2.3% in 2016 and the strongest performance since 2011. However, over the past month we have noticed a change to trends in the major economies, with the US data indicating a weakening of growth as the year progresses, while the prospects for the eurozone, Japan and China are improving. We now forecast US growth to come in at 2.0% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016, while the eurozone will edge up from 1.7% to 1.8%, and Japan from 1.0% to 1.3%; but China will slow from 6.7% to 6.3%.

The weaker outlook for the US has raised market concerns about the timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate change. In June US interest rates were raised for a second time in 2017, with the Fed signalling one further hike this year. In addition, it indicated that it is liable to start unwinding its bloated balance sheet by year-end. While we are maintaining our forecast in line with the Fed, further delays in timing – out to December, as we expect – could hold off a return of volatility in global capital and currency markets, in turn maintaining business confidence until late Q4 at least.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B’s Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

WORLD SNAPSHOT

AFRICA

Algeria: A new policy aims to cut the abuse of import tariffs.
South Africa: The benchmark interest rate is cut to stimulate growth.

MIDDLE EAST

Iran: US pressure on Iran continues to ratchet upn.
Oman: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Oman’s country risk rating amid weak economic fundamentals and rising political risk.

WESTERN EUROPE

Germany: Dun & Bradstreet upgrades Germany’s country risk rating amid multiple positive developments.
United Kingdom: Political uncertainty remains high amid anaemic growth.

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Poland’s country risk rating due to ongoing political problems.
Russian Federation: The US approves legislation to extend sanctions on Russia.

ASIA PACIFIC

India: Dun & Bradstreet downgrades its rating outlook for India as the central bank cuts interest rates.
Indonesia: The government steps up efforts to contain extremist groups.

AMERICAS

Argentina: Economic activity accelerates amid impressive growth in industrial production.
Bolivia: A boundary committee with Chile is reactivated to help restore co-operation.

D&B Country Insight Services

D&B’s Country RiskLine reports above are written by a team of highly skilled analysts in D&B’s Country Insight Services team using exclusive data from its global network of reporting offices as well as primary and secondary data from national and international sources.

These snapshot reports provide a succinct assessment of the risk of doing business in a country, given its economic, political and commercial situation.

Updated monthly, the data and analysis are presented in a standard format  which helps you monitor and evaluate the business trading conditions in a foreign country and facilitates the management of ongoing business risk around the globe.

To find out more information click here.

NEW: D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by ‚D&B’s Country Insight Model‘ and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Greece

The economy is likely to have expanded further in Q2 but downside risks remain. Report

Japan

Japan signs a major free-trade agreement with the EU. Report

Mexico

The central bank tightens monetary policy as robust inflation persists. Report

veröffentlicht am: 11. August 2017